Uzbekistan's economy may grow 7-7.2% year-on-year in January-March 2026, according to calculations by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR).

Based on CERR data, the baseline GDP growth forecast for the first quarter is approximately 7% year-on-year. The estimate was prepared using a dynamic factor model that accounts for 35 key monthly and weekly indicators of current economic activity.

CERR reports that the expected growth will be primarily driven by business activity (3.1 percentage points), the financial-credit sector (1 percentage point), banking transactions (0.9 percentage points), industrial production (0.6 percentage points), and retail trade (0.3 percentage points).

Additionally, the forecast was calculated using machine learning methods based on analysis of 250 weekly indicators of Google search queries across 20 categories. According to this assessment, GDP growth in the first quarter could reach 7.2%. Thus, the forecast range is set at 7-7.2%.

In January 2026, search query analysis showed that queries in the "internet and telecommunications" category increased by 19.3% compared to the same period last year, in the "finance" category by 7.9%, and in the "shopping" category by 5.2%.

CERR also noted that in 2025, Uzbekistan's economy grew by 7.7%, up from 6.7% the previous year.

Source: kun.uz