The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3% to 3.1%, citing the impact of the United States-Israeli war on Iran and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz on the world economy. The war has damaged energy infrastructure across the Gulf, while critical exports like oil, gas, chemicals, and fertilizer remain largely stranded due to Iran’s closure of the strait and the subsequent US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
In the worst-case scenario of a prolonged war, the IMF said global growth could fall to 2.5% in 2026, with low-income and developing economies hit hardest by soaring commodity and energy prices. The global shipping and logistics industry is facing a separate crisis. However, every economic crisis also has beneficiaries: despite the dire macroeconomic outlook, some sectors of the global economy are thriving on the uncertainty.
Investment banks are reaping significant profits amid recent volatility. According to Sean Dunlap, a director of equity research at Morningstar Research Services, the erratic decision-making of US President Donald Trump has led to increased trading volume, bringing millions in commissions and revenue to banks. Morgan Stanley reported a profit of $5.57 billion in the first quarter of 2026 (up 29% year-on-year), Goldman Sachs reported $5.63 billion (up 19%), and JP Morgan Chase posted earnings of $16.49 billion (up 13%). All banks cited high levels of trading, deal-making, and "robust client engagement" as reasons behind surging profits.
The crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket has been earning over $1 million a day since late March by allowing users to make peer-to-peer bets on everything from sports tournaments to elections. The platform has emerged as a standout winner in 2026, controversially permitting bets on outcomes of conflicts like the Iran war. According to DefiLlama data, the platform has netted more than $21 million in fees since April 1, up from $11.6 million for all of March and $6.23 million for February. If the current trend continues, Polymarket could make $342 million in fees this year alone.
The aerospace and defense industries are also booming this year due to major conflicts in Ukraine, Iran, Sudan, Gaza, and Lebanon, coupled with a surge in global defense spending. According to an April report from the IMF, about half of the world’s countries have increased their military budgets over the past five years, driving demand for everything from drones to missiles. The MSCI World Aerospace and Defence Index reported net returns of 32% year-on-year at the end of March, outpacing the MSCI World Index, which recorded 18.9% over the same period.
The artificial intelligence (AI) industry is showing resilience despite the crisis. Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noted that despite shocks from the Iran war, sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy are demonstrating stability. Taiwan, a chipmaking powerhouse, reported record merchandise exports of $80.2 billion in March (up 61.8% year-on-year). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) posted net income of NT$572.8 billion ($18.1 billion) for the first three months of 2026, up 58% year-on-year in New Taiwan Dollars.
The renewable energy sector is experiencing a boost from the war, as countries recognize the need to transition to renewable sources for energy security. Following the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, Asian nations, which typically buy 80-90% of the oil and gas transiting the strait, are scrambling to find alternative energy sources. South Korea, Thailand, India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have announced various measures, from tax breaks for solar panels to commissioning new renewable energy projects. The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index is up 70.92% year-on-year.
Source: www.aljazeera.com