During the first month of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Houthis adopted a cautious approach, even though many expected faster action based on their close ties with Tehran. This assessment is not incorrect — the relationship is indeed strong — but what this view overlooks is that decision-making within the Yemeni group has increasingly become the product of an extended internal debate.

This debate traces back to the Houthis’ decision to launch military action in support of Gaza after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023. After the United States and Israel initiated retaliatory strikes in March 2025, lasting two months, an agreement brokered by Oman in May brought the fighting to a halt. This experience had a profound impact on the group.

Some Houthi leaders believe the cost of involvement over the past two years was high, not only in terms of military and leadership losses and civilian casualties, but also in draining resources, damaging infrastructure, and complicating the political track, especially with Saudi Arabia, which had proposed a roadmap for peace in Yemen in 2022.

This assessment did not remain at the level of abstract analysis; it became the basis for an internal discussion that produced two clear currents. The first current leans towards caution — the previous experience proved that direct involvement does not yield strategic gains but opens costly fronts. This camp pushes for avoiding open confrontation, preserving existing understandings, and limiting action to political support or small, contained operations that do not drag the group into large-scale escalation.

In contrast, another current believes the present moment is crucial for the so-called “axis of resistance” created by Iran, and that absence or hesitation could cost the group its place in the post-war equation. For this current, this is a decisive moment to assert the Houthis’ presence, especially amid an expanding conflict and the likelihood of a reshuffling of the regional balance of power.

These two currents have shaped the Houthis’ decision-making in recent weeks. As a result, today the group has embraced neither full-scale engagement nor total absence. This was evident first in the escalation of political rhetoric during the first month of the war, then in the execution of limited, carefully calculated operations that began on March 27. There was a clear declaration of gradual intervention, close monitoring of developments, and a deliberate effort not to cross the red lines identified by the group’s military spokesperson, particularly those related to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

However, the balance between the two currents may become unstable at some point as the war escalates and widens regionally, and as Iranian and Houthi talk of a “unity of fronts” intensifies. The longer the conflict lasts, the less able the group will be to remain in this grey zone, and the stronger the pressure will be for deeper involvement.

With each new development on the ground, this internal debate may edge closer to a moment of decision: either entrenching caution as a long-term strategic choice, or shifting to broader involvement that may not be as gradual as was declared in Houthi statements. What remains constant, however, is that the group has entered this phase with the accumulated experience of past years — a record that has taught it the cost of involvement and made it aware that entering a war is not merely a military decision, but an open-ended political, security, and economic trajectory. It has already paid that price in its previous confrontations with the US and Israel.

Thus, the question is no longer whether the Houthis will enter the war, but how they will enter and at what cost. Will they be able to set and maintain limits on their involvement? Will their calibrated entry avoid paying the full price? The answers to these questions will be made clear in the weeks to come.

Source: www.aljazeera.com