️ Just hours after US and Israeli strikes began targeting Iran on Saturday, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, called it an “unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state.”
️ Moscow and Tehran cooperate on several economic... projects, including the North-South transport corridor, which is vital for Russia, especially since it was cut off from traditional transit routes after launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
️ Iran has also been crucial militarily to Russia, notably by providing Shahed drones since 2023. These drones have significantly reshaped the war in Ukraine.
️ However, experts agree that Russia is unlikely to actively intervene to defend Iran. The two countries are not defensive allies, and Russia is understood to have an informal non-attack pact with Israel.
️ The Iranian leadership allegedly expected “tangible political and military support” from Moscow, but these calculations were mistaken. Russia and China have their own problems, and their support has been limited to weapons and other means.
️ A prolonged war in Iran could have some upsides for Moscow, as it might divert European and US attention away from Ukraine and refocus it on the Middle East.
