US President Donald Trump, known for issuing ultimatums, has once again shown their lack of enforceability. The 14-day deadline set in early April expired without results, and the new ceasefire agreement contains no specific end date. Trump now claims he will hold off on attacking Iran until Tehran submits a new proposal and its discussion is concluded 'one way or the other.'
Meanwhile, the US Navy continues to blockade Iranian ports. The 14-day truce enabled the first direct negotiations between the US and Iran in nearly a decade, but mutual distrust has prevented further rounds. Several planned meetings in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan, were postponed or canceled.
The US insists on a 15-point plan, while Iran has 10 demands of its own. Neither side appears willing to maintain the current uncertainty indefinitely. Two scenarios are conceivable: either the parties return to negotiations and bridge their differences to reach a peaceful agreement, or tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, leading to a resumption of hostilities.
Of the US's 15 demands, two are considered central: Iran must abandon its nuclear program and ensure free passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, claiming he would get a 'better deal.' However, talks have stalled over timelines: Iran is reportedly prepared to halt enrichment for five years, while the US demands at least 20 years.
The second major issue is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the war began on February 28, Iran has halted civilian shipping, gaining significant economic and political leverage. The US responded by blockading Iranian ports. Restoring free navigation would require an international naval mission.
The war has damaged Trump domestically. Parts of his MAGA movement have distanced themselves because he broke his promise to avoid protracted foreign military engagements. The economic impact of the blockade is felt in the US as well. With midterm elections six months away, pressure on Trump is mounting.
Iran's regime under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be in less hurry, but the blockade is hurting its economy. However, the Revolutionary Guards, described as a 'state within a state,' are seen as benefiting from the conflict to expand their influence.
The war was initiated by both the US and Israel, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's goals differ from Washington's. Israel, within range of Iranian rockets, has continued heavy bombardment of Hezbollah in Lebanon. A Trump-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is now in place, but its success is tied to US-Iran developments.
Source: www.dw.com