US President Donald Trump described the Iranian leadership as 'seriously fractured' as he announced an extension to a ceasefire, purportedly to allow more time for negotiations while suggesting disarray within Iran's government. The US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports will remain in place, according to Trump's statement, which critics argue maintains pressure on Tehran amid ongoing tensions.
Three weeks ago, Trump allegedly claimed the US military campaign had succeeded in forcing a change in Iran's government, asserting that the US was now dealing with 'a whole new set of people' in charge. On April 11, Iran sent a delegation led by parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to Islamabad, Pakistan, to begin talks with the US, highlighting the complex diplomatic maneuvers in the region.
The ascension of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader, following the death of his father in US-Israeli airstrikes, signals that hardline factions have retained power, potentially indicating little desire for a deal with the US in the short term. Khamenei has not been seen in public due to reported injuries, though state media claims he remains active in decision-making, including warnings of 'new bitter defeats' for the US and Israel.
Ghalibaf, the key Iranian official leading negotiations with Washington, has faced internal criticism, with some accusing him of 'betrayal' for engaging with the US. He rejected negotiations under threat, stating Iran is 'prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield'. Trump extended the ceasefire until Iran can present a 'unified proposal', a move seen as highlighting divisions within the Iranian regime.
Iran's opaque military power structure, including parallel armies like the Artesh and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), complicates the negotiation process. The IRGC, central to Iran's deterrence strategy, has conducted retaliatory strikes against US assets, with experts noting the negotiating team's alignment with IRGC priorities, though some observe a visible divide between military and diplomatic factions.
Hardline groups such as the Paydari Front are using the negotiations to cement their position within Iran's political structure, questioning the diplomatic efforts. If a deal is reached, it is likely to have a sovereign character, with the IRGC accepting it, while hardliners may criticize President Masoud Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf, though this is not expected to disrupt the establishment's decision-making body.
Source: www.aljazeera.com