️ The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan to 6.5% for 2026. In September of last year, the bank had projected the country's GDP growth for 2026 at 6%.
️ According to the EBRD's regional economic prospects review published... in February, economic growth rates in Central Asia increased from 5.9% in 2024 to approximately 6.9% in 2025. This, as stated in the review, is explained by rising consumption volumes, rapid credit growth, stable remittances, and high investments. The bank raised its forecasts for average growth rates in the region for 2026 to 5.6% due to major investment projects, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (the September forecast was 5.2%). Growth rates in the region are expected to moderate to 5.3% by 2027.
️ According to the bank's calculations, after 6.7% growth in 2024, Uzbekistan's GDP growth rate accelerated to 7.7% in 2025. In 2026, growth is expected at 6.5%, with a slowdown to 6% anticipated by 2027.
️ The review notes that in January-October 2025, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Côte d'Ivoire became the countries that increased US imports the most in absolute terms (in nominal US dollars) due to a sharp decline in US imports from China. The fastest percentage growth in US imports was attributed to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan. According to the bank's calculations, in January-October of last year, US imports from China decreased by 27%, while imports from the rest of the world grew by 12.6%.
️ Additionally, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan gained a high share in precious metal supplies to the US. The export growth is explained not only by rising prices but also by an increase in physical delivery volumes. Analysts suggest this may be linked to growing demand for components used in the artificial intelligence sector.
️ The World Bank, in its January report, improved its forecast for Uzbekistan's GDP growth in 2026 to 6%. According to the bank's report, Uzbekistan will be among the top 3 fastest-growing economies in the Europe and Central Asia region in 2026.
️ According to data from the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan's economy grew by 7.7% in 2025. Under the country's state budget law, the government projects GDP growth for 2026 at 6.6%.
