The war against Iran launched by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026, is likely to end in an American retreat. The United States cannot sustain the war without disastrous consequences. A renewed escalation would likely destroy the region's oil, gas, and desalination infrastructure, causing a prolonged global catastrophe.
The war plan, allegedly a decapitation strike, was reportedly sold to President Donald Trump by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea. The premise was that a joint bombing campaign would fracture Iran's regime, allowing the US and Israel to impose a pliable government in Tehran. However, the plan failed.
Trump purportedly believed Iran would follow the same course as Venezuela, where a US operation in January 2026 removed President Nicolas Maduro. But Iran is not Venezuela—historically, technologically, culturally, geographically, militarily, demographically, or geopolitically.
The Iranian government did not fracture. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tightened its command, the supreme leader's office held, and the population rallied against external attack.
Two months in, Trump and Netanyahu have no successor government under control, no surrender, and no military path to victory. The only path is retreat, with Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Reasons for America's miscalculations include: misjudging Iran's 5,000-year civilization and technological sophistication (advanced missiles, drones, orbital launch capability); a shift in military technology favoring Iran (cheap Iranian missiles vs. expensive US interceptors); and an irrational decision-making process (war decided by a small circle at Mar-a-Lago without interagency review).
The likely endgame leaves three new facts: Iran's operational control over the Strait of Hormuz, a raised deterrent posture, and reduced US military presence in the Gulf. Iran will not press its advantage, seeking cooperation with neighbors, while Russia and China provide restraint.
Trump will likely depict the retreat as a victory, but it is not. The truth is that Iran is far more sophisticated than understood, the war decision was irrational, and technology has shifted against the US. The American empire cannot win this war. It is time to end regime-change operations and return to international law and diplomacy.
Source: www.aljazeera.com