Israel is engaged in two semi-frozen conflicts in Lebanon and Iran, but the outcome of these battles will likely be determined not by Israel's own political leaders, but by the United States and President Donald Trump, Israeli analysts have told Al Jazeera.
With US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner headed to Pakistan for another round of talks with Iran, Israel is not included. Trump announced on Thursday a three-week extension to the ceasefire in Lebanon. Israel has repeatedly violated that ceasefire, but analysts highlight that Trump continues to have more influence over events than his partners in Israel.
This is despite Israeli leaders, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, repeatedly calling Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah existential threats. Netanyahu had for years called for the kind of war he eventually unleashed on Iran with the US at the end of February. But the conclusion of that war now appears out of his control, raising concern among the Israeli public who were promised an end to the Iranian threat and the disarmament of Hezbollah.
Former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy called Netanyahu's attempt to steer Washington on Iran and Lebanon both hubristic and opportunistic, comparing it to the unquestioning US support during the genocidal war on Gaza. With Hezbollah and Iran damaged but still standing, Trump's announcement of twin ceasefires has exposed Netanyahu to domestic political jeopardy. A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute showed overwhelming support among Jewish Israeli respondents for continuing the conflict even if it led to friction with the US, while a Hebrew University poll found two-thirds of Israelis opposing the pause with Iran.
American Israeli political consultant Dahlia Scheindlin noted that Israelis tend to lump Iran and Lebanon into a broader basket of 'all enemies against us,' but there is a growing understanding that Washington ultimately shapes the course of events. Former Israeli chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot said the ceasefire in Lebanon was a continuation of ceasefires being 'imposed' on Israel, while opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized Netanyahu's inability to convert military achievements into diplomatic gains.
Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas stated that the Iranian regime is still standing, the uranium remains, and the IRGC is stronger, marking a strategic defeat for Israel. He questioned whether Trump cares about Netanyahu's fate, suggesting that Trump wants a deal with Iran and can live with Israel being the loser.
Source: www.aljazeera.com