US President Donald Trump was quick to declare victory after the second crew member of an F-15 downed over Iran was recovered, claiming on Sunday that the dramatic rescue operation in Iranian territory "proves, once again, that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority." However, observers paint a more complicated picture of the implications for the US in Iran, highlighting persistent challenges and risks.
While the mission was a success, the events of recent days—in which two aircraft were downed and at least one helicopter hit by gunfire—underscore that threats to US aircraft and personnel remain, even after weeks of heavy US and Israeli strikes against Iran's military infrastructure and boasts from the president that Tehran had "no anti-aircraft equipment" left. This contradiction raises questions about the effectiveness of the US strategy in the region.
Several Washington sources who spoke to the BBC speculated that the loss of aircraft and the complexity of the pilot recovery operation could potentially dissuade Trump from any ground operation to seize Kharg Island and sites in the Persian Gulf, or to capture highly enriched uranium buried deep underground in Iran. These operations, scoped by military planners and presented as options, are deeply complex and risk exposing US forces to lingering Iranian capabilities, including difficult-to-find man-portable air defense systems (Manpads), which are shoulder-launched weapons most effective against low-flying aircraft.
On the other hand, the fact that US troops were able to enter a contested environment, establish a forward airfield and refueling point under the nose of the Iranians, and then hold it for hours while two damaged aircraft were destroyed and replacements sent might embolden him. It could convince the administration that an airborne or amphibious operation against targets in Iran stands a good chance of success, potentially leading to further escalation.
Trump has also sent mixed messages about the path forward, telling reporters in a series of phone calls on Sunday that he allegedly believes a "deal" with Iran could be just around the corner. If that fails, he has said repeatedly on Truth Social, the clock is ticking on a self-imposed deadline to begin striking Iranian power plants and bridges. In an expletive-laden message on Sunday to the Iranian regime, he purportedly warned that if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened, they would be "living in Hell." In a brief phone interview with Fox, Trump also suggested he might move to "take" Iran's oil, without providing further details, adding to the uncertainty.
An expanded campaign against Iranian infrastructure and energy targets would represent a significant escalation, with human rights groups warning of the impact on civilians and potential violations of international law. Critics of the president are likely to view this as a sign of Trump's frustration that the US has been unable to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global corridor for oil and other commodities, highlighting the broader geopolitical costs.
Trump's comments over the weekend stand in contrast to several he made last week, including a televised address on April 1, in which he suggested that the US had already created the conditions necessary for other countries to engage in the Strait. "Take it, protect it, use it for yourselves," he told allies, shifting responsibility. Trump had also recently suggested that he was willing to "leave" Iran even if a deal eluded him, but he now appears to have shifted course in the hopes that doubling down on the threat of devastating attacks on the country's core infrastructure can prompt Tehran's leadership to come to the table, a strategy fraught with risk and potential miscalculation.
Source: www.bbc.com